Focusing on international indicators, on the capacity of the domestic catering market, we can conclude that the market today is not saturated and has all the growth prospects.
According to the definition of GOST R 50647-2010, catering is “an independent sector of the economy, consisting of enterprises of various forms of ownership and an organizational and managerial structure, organizing the nutrition of the population, as well as the production and sale of finished products and semi-finished products, both in public catering enterprises and outside it, with the possibility of providing a wide range of leisure services and other additional services. ”
As can be seen from the definition, the catering market provides two main types of services - catering and leisure activities. You can segment the market by these parameters, as well as by a number of others.
Catering Market Segmentation
To date, in various sources you can find a lot of options for segmentation of the catering market. In this article, we offer our own version, based on the division of the market into two main segments, which were discussed in Section 1 (depending on the dominant format):
Nutrition
Casual dining restaurants are usually mid-range restaurants with no pronounced theme; usually selected based on geographical proximity
Cafes - are selected on the basis of geographical proximity in order to have a bite or spend time waiting for something (a movie session, meetings, etc.)
Canteens - establishments with full or partial self-service, focused on affordable prices with a relatively low quality of food; usually formed at enterprises or commercial clusters to serve employees of enterprises
Fast food - catering establishments aimed at quick service of a visitor, as a rule, have affordable prices
Street food - “street food” focused on fast service at a low price level
Leisure
Fine dining restaurants - restaurants of a high price segment, offering visitors a cozy atmosphere, high quality service and an exclusive menu; usually geographical proximity is not important for customers, the decision to visit is made on the basis of commitment to the cuisine of the institution, its status, etc. As a rule, people spend much more time in such establishments than in casualdining restaurants.
Themed cafes, bars, pubs - establishments having a certain theme, often without an extensive menu, but offering guests a cozy atmosphere, an exclusive menu and good service
Mixed
Coffee houses, pastry shops - establishments with a cozy atmosphere that do not offer a wide menu of cuisine, but focused on a narrow food range; usually selected on the basis of geographical proximity, however, the guest’s stay is usually longer than in a regular cafe
Budget network establishments - for example, Japanese restaurants offering affordable prices that attract youth companies
Food Market Overview
According to experts, 2015 has been the most difficult for the industry in recent years. The main factors of influence were: a decrease in consumer activity due to a drop in real incomes of the population, as well as a food embargo, which led to higher prices and lower profitability of many establishments.
According to the results of 2015, the turnover of public catering in Russia decreased by 5.5% compared to the previous year.
Figure 1. Dynamics of the turnover of the public catering market in 2006 - 2016, billion rubles, % (data from Alfa Bank and RBC)
Restaurants of the middle price segment showed the largest drop - 12.4%. According to the results of 2015, the turnover of this segment amounted to 396 billion rubles. This segment was most affected by counter-sanctions - restriction of food imports, as a result of which prices for many of them increased significantly. As a result - the transition to products of domestic manufacturers, a change in the menu, rising prices for dishes. In addition, the economic crisis negatively affected the middle class, which was the main target audience of casual dining restaurants - people began to save, eat less outside the home.
Against this background, one of the main market trends is the shift in demand from the middle price segment to the budget, in particular, to fast food establishments. This trend is noted by many experts and market participants. It was fast food that became the only market segment that grew amid an unfavorable economic situation. In 2015, its growth amounted to 5.2% in real terms. RBC.research estimates the market volume of stationary fast food restaurants at 198 billion rubles.
Fine stability restaurants in the fine dining segment (high price segment) also showed high stability during the crisis. Here, the decline in volumes in 2015 amounted to only 0.2%, which is apparently due to the high loyalty of the audience, as well as the presence of additional value - people not only consider such establishments not only as a place to meet basic nutritional needs, but also as confirmation of social status, a place for business negotiations, etc. In addition, incomes of the well-off part of the population fell significantly lower than incomes of the middle class.
The most affected are the street food establishments - a decline of 5.5%. The reason is less spontaneous purchases by the population; the decision to visit a catering establishment began to be made more carefully = as a rule, in favor of budget restaurants, fast food restaurants and canteens.
Nevertheless, the segment of canteens also suffered quite a lot due to the appearance of a large number of budget restaurants offering various combo menus and business lunches at affordable prices for the population. This is especially true of chain restaurants, which have the ability to reduce the cost of dishes due to low purchase prices with large volumes. In addition, the dining room format is becoming less and less popular due to its low status. The decline in turnover in this segment was 3.8%.
All of the above changes in the market indicate its democratization - the share of budgetary institutions, including fast food, in the total market volume is growing steadily. In 2015, it increased by 3.3% and amounted to 21.0%, and as of May 2016 - already 21.8%. Growth in the market structure is also shown by chain restaurant projects. They also, as a rule, differ in democratic price and relatively low level of costs.
In addition to economic and social problems, government regulation also had a negative effect on the market. In 2016, a rule was introduced for all catering establishments on mandatory connection to the EGAIS system (a unified state automated information system for the volume of production and turnover of ethyl alcohol and alcohol-containing products). According to the decree of the regulator (FS RAR), “organizations engaged in the retail sale of alcoholic beverages in urban settlements are required to register information with EGAIS regarding confirmation of the fact of purchasing alcohol from 08/18/2019, and“ regarding retail sale from 08/18/2019. ”
According to market participants, the costs of introducing the Unified State Automated Information System will negatively affect the profitability of many enterprises, increasing the negative effect of rising prices and a drop in visitors traffic.
Nevertheless, the real situation turned out to be slightly better than experts expected, forecasting a 6.3% drop in turnover, while the real drop was 5.5%. Experts also believe that the market has not yet reached the bottom, and so far has more or less stabilized, adapted to the conditions of the crisis. We can talk about recovery only if the overall economic situation in the country improves, and consumer confidence grows.
Figure 2. Dynamics of changes in the consumer price index for food products, 2007 - 2015, % (data from Alfa Bank and RBC)
Figure 3. The average per capita cost of food "outside the house", rub. per month (data from Alfa Bank and RBC)
Of course, the food embargo gave impetus to the development of agriculture in the country, however, it is immediately impossible to see the results in such an industry. It takes time and investment in the modernization and development of production facilities - both directly in the production of the initial product, and in its processing. Many participants in the catering market faced serious difficulties in finding domestic suppliers. These difficulties concern not only the quantity of manufactured products, but also their quality in comparison with imported analogues. Nevertheless, many market participants note the fact that today localization of purchases reaches 85% -90%.
Against the background of a weakening national currency, rental rates, traditionally fixed in foreign currency equivalent, also increased, which forced many players to terminate existing agreements with lessors and close a number of projects.
Despite the difficult economic situation, a number of players are planning a fairly serious development for the next one or two years. In particular, large fast food brands are planning to develop new formats - for example, the opening of mobile points of sale, the active development of a franchise network, the development of new regions (the Far East, cities with a population of less than 1 million people), expanding their own retail network, and so on . In addition to the development of the Russian market, some domestic players plan to enter foreign markets, including in the USA, China and Kazakhstan.
Market research and consumer sentiment showed that in 2015, Russians' revenues decreased by 4%. At the same time, prices rose not only for dishes in catering establishments, but also for essential goods, which made the population save. First of all, cost reduction affected the sphere of leisure, especially where the main audience was the middle class.
According to the results of opinion polls, visiting restaurants and cafes is in third place among Russians in the ranking of the most popular paid types of leisure activities, giving way to shopping and cinema. Priority of visits to catering establishments was announced by 40.8% of respondents in 2016. At the same time, for men, this type of leisure is in second place.
The most active audience of catering establishments are young people aged 18 to 24 years. According to respondents, with age, they are less likely to visit cafes and restaurants. The largest number of visits, according to the survey, is observed in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Here, every second respondent visits cafes, bars and restaurants. A survey by RBC.research also shows that visitors to catering establishments are mostly single and unmarried respondents, as well as those without children.
Figure 4. Dynamics of price growth in public catering enterprises, 2007 - 2015, % (data from Alfa Bank and RBC)
International studies have shown that the share of the cost of food “outside the home” in Russia is one of the lowest among developed countries. In 2015, it amounted to only 10.7% of the total budget for food. For comparison, in Canada, the share of expenses on food “outside the home” is 39%, and in the USA - 47%. The total turnover of the catering market in Russia is 1 301 billion rubles, Germany - 3 400 billion rubles, and the USA - 43 468 billion rubles. At the same time, in recent years, all foreign countries have shown steady market growth (from 1% to 3% per year).
Focusing on international indicators, on the capacity of the domestic catering market, we can conclude that the market today is not saturated and has all the growth prospects. According to analysts, in the medium term, in the absence of global economic shocks, it may well go into growth and demonstrate an annual increase in turnover of 6-8%.
If we talk about technological market trends, here we should note the popularization of the electronic menu, which allows, firstly, to update the position without retyping all copies (as is the case with the traditional paper menu), and the opportunity to provide the client with a wider, more detailed and colorful description each position.
Many institutions develop their own mobile applications, which serve as an effective tool to increase loyalty. With the help of applications, institutions inform customers about discounts, promotions, and hold contests. Within the framework of such programs, it becomes possible to abandon physical media - loyalty cards and other things.
More and more institutions - primarily for large networks - are strengthening their presence in social networks, using them as a means of communication with the target audience. The main trends in this direction: receiving feedback, tracking the opinions of visitors in order to neutralize the negative, attract the attention of potential customers
08/18/2019