business ideas: Passenger business plan

* The calculations use the average data for the World

1. SUMMARY OF THE PROJECT

The purpose of the project is the organization of a company engaged in passenger transportation by road (minibuses), mainly along tourist routes. The company is located in Rostov-on-Don. Orders are received from the tour operators of the city, offering medium and long-range tourist trips.

One of the main factors for the success of the project is the increase in the popularity of domestic tourism in Russia due to a decrease in real disposable incomes of the population, and as a result, the rejection of trips abroad. Competitiveness is based on: high quality transport (unlike most competitors) and the quality of drivers' work - first of all, the presence of many years of experience, responsibility, accuracy, and the absence of bad habits.

In order to implement the project, three used minibuses with a capacity of 20 people each are purchased; the class of cars is premium, which means a high level of ride comfort and operational reliability.

The project has moderate investment attractiveness over a five-year period with initial data. However, after three to five years from the start of the project, it is possible to purchase additional vehicles, which will increase the efficiency and profitability of the project. The decision on the acquisition will be taken by the project initiator based on an analysis of the current financial situation of the project, economic conditions and other factors. In Tab. 1 shows the main indicators of project effectiveness. Thus, it makes sense to consider the planned project results not only from a financial point of view, but also as an opportunity to earn a business reputation and expand the client base, which will allow for further development of the project with increased profitability and other financial indicators.

Table 1. Key performance indicators of the project

Payback period (PP), months	12
Discount payback period (DPP), months	12
Net present value (NPV), rub.	6, 262, 237
Return on Investment (ARR), %		10.48%
Internal rate of return (IRR), %	8.85%
Profitability Index (PI)	1.13

2. COMPANY DESCRIPTION AND INDUSTRY

Since the main sales channel for the project is working with tour operators organizing trips around Russia, it is necessary to consider the market of travel services in Russia. Tourism in Russia today is subject to two strongest multidirectional factors of influence. On the one hand, this is a difficult and unstable situation in the country's economy, a decrease in the solvency of the population. On the other hand, the same factor, as well as the blocking of such popular tourist destinations as Turkey and Egypt, lead to the fact that the volume of domestic tourism in the country tends to increase.

According to ATOR (Association of Tour Operators), the profitability of the business in the tour operator segment has declined significantly in recent years. If in 2008 it amounted to about 5%, then in 2013-2014 it decreased to 2%. This logically led to a reduction in the number of players in the market - according to the results of 2015, by no less than 30% in total; the number of tour operators is estimated at 10%. From a certain point of view, this can be considered as a reorganization of the market, which will ensure its higher stability. Nevertheless, one should not expect a significant increase in business profitability, which complicates the activities of the remaining players.

Also, according to ATOR, in 2015 the number of tourists in some regions of the country decreased by almost 80%, the number of companies working in outbound tourism by almost a third; the number of program departures in some regional cities decreased by 30-55%. This means the return of the travel scheme through Moscow, which will inevitably lead to a significant increase in the cost of trips.

This situation is expected to lead to an increase in domestic tourism. However, despite the relatively low cost of domestic tours, there is no “streaming” tourism product in the country. Among the most popular and having high growth potential demand areas, experts call: the Black Sea coast of Crimea and the Krasnodar Territory, Siberia, the Urals, the North Caucasus, Tatarstan, the Trans-Siberian Railway, the Golden Ring.

One of the directions of tourism development in Russia is inbound tourism. This direction requires active development: today there are representative offices of 43 foreign ministries of tourism in the country, while there are no similar representative offices of Russia abroad. However, the first steps are already being taken. For example, in the framework of one of the largest international tourism exhibition Beijing International Tourism Expo-2016 on the Asian market, the first stage of the Russian Tourism Road Show Visit Russia presentation tour was held, aimed at stimulating the tourist flow from China. In general, it should be noted that from 2009 to 2015, the tourist flow from China to Russia annually grew by an average of 40%. In 2015, more than 1 million people in China visited Russia.

According to the forecasts of carriers, in 2016 about 7.2 million people will visit the Black Sea coast of Russia.

The main trends of recent years should also include the refusal of Russians from package tours. Independent planning and organization of tourist trips significantly reduces the cost of travel. The main tool for the development of independent tourism is the Internet. Sales growth in the online travel segment was 17% over the past year.

According to the Federal Air Transport Agency, the number of passengers in January-October 2015 in domestic destinations increased by 15.5%, and in international destinations decreased by 13.9%.

We also cannot ignore state regulation of the industry, aimed at toughening the responsibility of operators and agencies for failure to fulfill obligations to customers. In particular, the amendments introduced to Federal Law No. 49 “On Strengthening the Responsibility of Tour Operators” require the creation of a personal liability fund for tour operators in the field of outbound tourism, which is intended to compensate tourists if the tour operator fails to fulfill its obligations. The fund will be formed by the annual contribution of the tour operator in the amount of 1% of the total price of the tour product for the previous year and will become a prerequisite for the company to be included in the Unified Register of Market Players. The changes will come into force on January 1, 2017.

The company is located in Rostov-on-Don. Rostov-on-Don is the capital of the Southern Federal District, the administrative center of the Rostov Region, the largest economic, industrial, cultural and historical center of the South of Russia. The population of the city is 1.1 million people. The population of the urban agglomeration is 2.2 million people.

Due to the location of the city, Rostov-on-Don is called the "Gateway to the Caucasus." The Southern Federal District (with the annexed Crimean Federal District) and the neighboring North Caucasus Federal District (part of the Southern Federal District separated in 2010) are rich in tourist attractions, reserves, and recreational areas, which makes the region attractive for tourist trips, both short-term and long-term. The region is characterized by a wide variety of climatic zones, relief, as well as the richness and variety of folk traditions. This primarily concerns the republics of the North Caucasus. From Rostov-on-Don, you can comfortably organize trips to Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Ingushetia, Chechnya, Karachay-Cherkessia.

The most popular destinations of the so-called bus tours:

Krasnodar Territory - summer beach vacations, winter - ski resorts (Krasnaya Polyana)
Crimea - summer beach and sightseeing holidays
Adygea - a visit to recreational natural areas (all year round)
Stavropol Territory - boarding houses of Caucasian mineral waters with additional excursions
Republics of the North Caucasus (Karachay-Cherkessia, Kabardino-Balkaria, North Ossetia, Chechnya, Ingushetia) - mainly the so-called "weekend tours" with a rich excursion program, ski resorts
Golden Ring - popular tours in the cities of the Central Federal District

In the absence of loading from regular partners, charter flights to any cities of Russia are possible. The most popular destinations from Rostov-on-Don: Moscow, Yerevan, Grozny.

3. DESCRIPTION OF GOODS AND SERVICES

The project provides services in the field of intercity passenger transportation by premium minibuses with a capacity of 20 people each. To date, the tourist market is predominantly represented by minibuses of the middle price segment, providing a minimum level of comfort. Moreover, they are in a condition not lower than satisfactory. Despite the fact that the project purchased used vans, the condition of each of them can be assessed as good and higher.

The minibuses used by the project have sliding doors for the passenger compartment, which facilitates the embarkation and disembarkation of passengers, including in tight spaces. The large glazing area is ideal for hiking trails - thanks to it, each passenger has the opportunity to get maximum visibility during the tour. The machines are equipped with high-power heaters and air conditioners, which ensures the necessary microclimate in the cabin in any weather. The reclining soft seats allow you to comfortably carry out even a long trip. Each car is equipped with a TV and a number of speakers in the passenger compartment - so tourists can watch entertainment programs and movies during the trip, or video tours; The modern head multimedia system is compatible with almost all audio and video formats. Also, the cars are equipped with microphones, which allows the head of the trip or the guide to transmit information to the passenger compartment with maximum comfort.

For safety reasons, all cars are equipped with GLONASS systems, which allow you to control the speed and location of the minibus. In case of emergency, the system transmits a signal to the operators of the Ministry of Emergencies. Also, an electronic speed limiter is installed on the machines, which does not allow the driver to develop a speed higher than the maximum allowed, which increases the safety of the trip.

With a capacity of 20 seats, the number of seats for passengers during a standard tourist trip is 17. Three seats in the driver’s cabin are reserved for the driver, tour leader and tour guide.

The cost of a service is calculated on the basis of, on the one hand, its cost, and on the other hand, on the basis of the assessment of the competitive environment. The level of prices proposed by the project can be estimated as average market, despite the fact that the quality of services is much higher than the average market. The cost price is calculated per 1 km of track and consists of such parameters as:

Fuel cost
Driver salary
Depreciation

The size of depreciation deductions is determined by the linear method on the basis of the car’s maximum mileage of 1, 000, 000 km, which is approximately equal to the life of five years. At the current price level, the cost of the service is 30 rubles / km.

4. SALES AND MARKETING

Project services are described in Section 3 of this business plan. For all trips, a single tariff is used, the service is not diversified by the duration of the route, bus loading and other parameters. Moreover, according to the results of the market analysis, the proposed price level is at the mid-market level: the spread in prices in the market of the studied region is from 28 to 33 rubles per kilometer. Minibuses (up to 20 people), as well as buses of small and medium capacity (up to 60 people) are usually used to serve the tourism industry enterprises on similar routes. The advantage of minibuses over larger cars is especially noticeable on mountain routes - some roads have very small turning radii or overhanging cliffs, a large car will not be able to drive. In addition, given the difficult economic situation in the country, not every operator is ready to book a large-capacity bus in advance, not knowing if there will be enough tourists. For this reason, small operators prefer to book one minibus, and, if necessary, order another one.

A study of the competitive environment also shows that today at least 30 enterprises in the region with various fleets of vehicles provide tourist transportation services. At the same time, only 25% of them have cars in good and excellent condition. The rest of the transport is in poor condition. Periodic breakdowns occur on routes, tourists complain about a worn-out interior and lack of comfort. According to the reviews of tourists and tour operators themselves, at least 30% of drivers do not comply with safety rules, speed limits and other traffic regulations. Thus, the competitiveness of the project is based on: high quality, reliability and comfort of transport, as well as the professionalism of drivers. Some little things are crucial for operators: a working microphone, heating and air conditioning, a properly functioning multimedia system, and so on.

The primary target audience of the project is the tour operators of Rostov-on-Don and the region, independently organizing trips on routes up to 1, 500 km long. Attracting customers and expanding the customer base is directly involved in the project initiator and sales specialist. Given the specifics of this type of activity, active advertising does not make much sense, the emphasis is on direct contact with a potential client. The peculiarity of the market is that the number of regional operators is limited, and their contact details are known. Thus, periodic personal meetings with responsible representatives of operators and maintaining contact with them are necessary.

Nevertheless, it is planned to promote the services of the project in fb.com and Instagram with a minimum budget (up to 500 rubles per month) with a description of the transport, photos of the cabin, photos from trips. The target audience is the heads of enterprises organizing corporate trips, as well as individuals planning weddings and other events with a large number of guests. The purpose of the advertising campaign is to provide backup loading of the project for a low season or in case of fluctuations in market conditions.

Demand for project services has a pronounced seasonality. The high season falls on the summer months - the period of vacations and trips to the sea. The maximum load is planned at this time. The minimum level of congestion occurs in March and October. Bursts of demand also occur locally - during public holidays lasting from three days: February 23, March 8, November 4, May holidays, New Year holidays. The seasonality factor is taken into account when forming the financial plan.

Planned sales are calculated based on an average daily trip of 800 km and 20 business days per month for each of the three cars. Seasonality of demand is shown in Fig. 1.

Table 2. Planned sales

	GOODS / SERVICES	AVERAGE PLANNED VOLUME OF SALES, units / month	PRICE FOR UNIT., Rub.	REVENUE, rub.	VARIABLE COSTS, rub.
one	Trip 1 km	48, 000	thirty	1, 440, 000	360, 000

Figure 1. Seasonality of demand for project services (continuous numbering of months, the first month - January)

5. PRODUCTION PLAN

Given the specific features of the project, renting space is not required. In the time intervals between flights, minibuses are located on the parking area owned by the project initiator. All servicing business processes (accounting, machine maintenance, pre-trip medical examinations, etc.) are outsourced. The exception is only a sales specialist working in the home office mode.

Minibuses purchased for the project belong to the premium class and have a high level of comfort for both drivers and passengers. Cars are purchased with relatively low mileage and in good condition. Before concluding an agreement with the seller, they must undergo a diagnosis of all components and assemblies. During operation, the machines undergo monthly diagnostics and maintenance.

The production plan is fully consistent with the sales plan.

6. ORGANIZATIONAL PLAN

The entire process of project implementation can be divided into the following stages:

Pre-investment (at the time the business plan was created, it has already been completed) - the stage of assessing the prospects of the project, finding sources of investment and fixed assets, drawing up a feasibility study (business plan), reaching preliminary agreements with investors, customers and suppliers
Investment - acquisition of fixed assets, conclusion of contracts, hiring of personnel (duration - 3 weeks)
Stage of growth - active promotion, expanding customer base, reaching planned sales figures
Maturity stage - ongoing work within the framework of planned financial indicators

According to the decision of the project initiator, at the maturity stage, additional investment of funds in the expansion of the project through the acquisition of additional minibuses is possible. The decision is made based on an analysis of the market and the competitive environment.

As the legal form of the project, the individual entrepreneur was chosen, the tax form is the simplified tax system with the taxable item “income” (6% rate).

The organizational structure of the project is simple. The staffing list includes only drivers on piece-rate pay and a sales specialist on a time wage basis. Social deductions for drivers are included in the cost of services. All employees of the enterprise are directly subordinate to the initiator of the project, who acts as a director, marketer, sales specialist and substitute driver.

In the selection of personnel, considerable attention is paid to the professionalism of drivers. It is evaluated by criteria such as:

Водительский стаж
Средний годовой километраж за последние три года
Наличие грубых нарушений ПДД (сведения с последнего места работы)
Ответственность
Отсутствие вредных привычек

Таблица 3. Штатное расписание

	Position	Salary, RUB	Number of people	PHOT, RUB
Administrative
one	Accountant	2, 000	one	2, 000
Industrial
2	Водитель микроавтобуса	Сдельная форма оплаты	3	0
Trade
3	Sales Manager	one	23, 000	23, 000
	Total:			25 000, 00
	Social Security contributions:			7 500, 00
	Total deductions:			32 500, 00

7. FINANCIAL PLAN

Финансовый план проекта составлен на пятилетний срок и включает все доходы и расходы проекта, а учитывает влияние фактора сезонности на уровень спроса. Под доходами понимается выручка проекта от операционной деятельности, при этом другие виды доходов (от инвестиционной деятельности или от реализации основных средств) проектом не предусмотрены. Выручка первого года реализации проекта – 11, 52 млн руб.; чистая прибыль (после уплаты налогов) – 5, 8 млн руб. Выручка второго года и последующих лет – 13, 1 млн руб., чистая прибыль – 6, 5 млн рублей.

Инвестиционные затраты по проекту составляют 5, 55 млн рублей, из которых основная часть направлена на приобретение основных средств (микроавтобусов). Характерной особенностью проекта является почти полное отсутствие накладных расходов, которое позволяет выходить на окупаемость уже с первого месяца реализации проекта. Таким образом, нет необходимости в формировании фонда оборотных средств.

Собственные средства инициатора проекта – 3, 0 млн рублей. Недостаток средств планируется покрыть с помощью привлечения банковского кредита на срок 36 месяцев под 18% годовых. Погашение кредита осуществляется ежемесячно аннуитетными платежами, кредитные каникулы – три месяца.

Table 4. Investment costs

	NAME	AMOUNT, rub.
Equipment
one	Микроавтобус (3 шт.)	4, 500, 000
2	Optional equipment	750, 000
Intangible assets
3	Регистрация и разрешения	300, 000
Current assets
four	Current assets	0
	Total:	5 550 000 ₽
	Own funds:	3 000 000, 00 ₽
	Required borrowed funds:	2 550 000 ₽
	Rate:	18.00%
	Duration, months:	36

Расчет переменных затрат и себестоимости услуги приведен в Разделе 3 данного бизнес-плана. Постоянные затраты включают ежемесячное техническое обслуживание машин, медицинские осмотры водителей и прочие медицинские услуги, а также коммерческие и прочие расходы.

Таблица 5. Постоянные затраты

	NAME	AMOUNT PER MONTH., Rub.
one	Техническое обслуживание транспорта	30, 000
2	Медицинские осмотры	6, 000
3	Selling expenses	10, 000
four	other expenses	5, 000
	Total:	51 000 ₽

A detailed financial plan is provided in App. one.

8. EVALUATION OF EFFICIENCY

Оценки эффективности и инвестиционной привлекательности проекта проводится на основании детального анализа финансового плана, денежных потоков, а также простых и интегральных показателей эффективности (Табл. 1). To account for changes in the value of money over time, the cash flow discounting method is used. Ставка дисконтирования принята на уровне 5%, что ниже безрисковой ставки на данный момент (доходность государственных облигаций с аналогичными инвестиционными параметрами); такой уровень обоснован тем, что данная часть проекта рассматривается как шаг к расширению бизнеса, направленный на формирование клиентской базы и деловой репутации.

Простой (PP) и дисконтированный (DPP) срок окупаемости проекта – 12 месяцев. Чистая приведенная стоимость (NPV) – 6, 3 млн рублей. Внутренняя норма прибыли (IIR) – 8, 85%, индекс доходности (PI) – 1, 13.

Все эти показатели говорят об эффективности и умеренно инвестиционной привлекательности проекта. Однако, если рассматривать проект как необходимую часть подготовки к более масштабному бизнесу, то инвестиционная привлекательность его значительно увеличивается.

9. WARRANTIES AND RISKS

Основной риск, связанный с реализацией проекта – технические проблемы с транспортом. Учитывая активную эксплуатацию микроавтобусов, а также то, что они не являются новыми, необходим постоянный мониторинг их состояния и высокое качество их текущего обслуживания. С этой целью заключается договор с одним из лучших в городе и регионе сервисных центров коммерческого транспорта, где все машины ежемесячно или, при необходимости, чаще, проходят диагностику всех уровней.