OBJECTIVE OF THE PROJECT
Organization of a craft brewery in Rostov-on-Don on a rented area with a capacity of up to 1, 000 liters per day. It is planned to create a strong Hammer Torah brand: building interaction not only with direct customers (HoReCa format establishments, premium segment draft beer shops), but also with the end consumer through communication on social networks, live events in establishments with the participation of the project team. The price segment is premium.
Success factors for the project are:
General market trend for light alcoholic beverages
Interest in new and unusual varieties, tastes
Lack of craft breweries in the region
Investment funds were allocated for the purchase of equipment, the organization of a launch advertising campaign, the purchase of the first batch of raw materials, the formation of a working capital fund until the project returns to payback.
Table 1. Key performance indicators of the project
Payback period (PP), months | five | ||
Discount payback period (DPP), months | 6 | ||
Net present value (NPV), rub. | 11 769 568 | ||
Return on Investment (ARR), % | 37.24% | ||
Internal rate of return (IRR), % | 23.54% | ||
Profitability Index (PI) | 1.24 | ||
COMPANY DESCRIPTION AND INDUSTRY
Beer has historically been one of the most consumed alcoholic beverages in the world as a whole, and in Russia and the CIS countries in particular. At the moment, the division into “live” and ordinary beer is widely used in the Russian Federation. At the same time, “live” means a drink that has not passed the pasteurization stage, which is believed to retain its high palatability. Due to the lack of this stage in the technological cycle of production, “live” beer does not withstand long-term storage; The recommended implementation period is usually 7-10 days. It is produced, as a rule, by relatively small regional breweries; distribution is carried out within a small territory in order to exclude long-term logistics. The opposite situation is with drinks produced by major market players. The three largest brewing companies occupy about 60% of the total market and own more than 40 brands. Beer goes through a full production cycle, including pasteurization, which allows for a long shelf life - up to six months, and in some cases more.
The division of the market between “live” and ordinary beer occurs with a huge advantage in favor of the latter, according to various estimates from 90% / 10% to 97% / 3%. Nevertheless, it was “live” beer that caused the boom in small business a few years ago, when the geographical density of points for its sale exceeded all reasonable limits. In recent years, there has been a natural cleaning of this area, a certain balance has formed.
Ordinary bottled beer is of interest to small businesses mainly as part of the range of grocery stores in the “walking distance” format. Wholesale trade is usually carried out by larger companies, which can be attributed as soon as possible to medium and large businesses.
According to the Federal State Statistics Service, 63% of the Russian beer market is occupied by only three players - Baltika, SAN Inbev and SABMiller (Moscow-Ephesus Brewery); their revenue in 2014 amounted to 83.3, 36.3 and 31.0 billion rubles, respectively. In total, according to the Russian Union of Brewers (RSP), about 850 factories operate in Russia.
The main background for the development of the beer production market is pressure from the state regulator - over the past five years, the excise rate has increased 6 times (from 3 to 18 rubles per liter), and the average retail price of a liter of beer has risen by 12 over the period from 2012 to 2015 %, up to 84 rubles per liter. In addition, the ban on the sale of beer through non-stationary retail outlets - kiosks, stalls, etc., also had an impact.
On the other hand, there are a number of factors that have a positive impact on the dynamics of the market. According to experts, this is a more substantial increase in prices for strong alcohol, as well as a change in the culture of alcohol consumption in favor of less strong drinks.
In 2014, there was a decrease in the volume of export of Russian beer - both in kind and in value terms.
For some time, the State Duma has been considering a bill regarding the restriction of the use of PET containers in the circulation of alcoholic beverages. In fact, in addition to beer, only a small amount of carbonated low-alcohol drinks (the so-called “cocktails”) are bottled in PET, the volume of production and sales of which is insignificant. The volume of beer sales in polyethylene terephthalate containers in Russia is 50% of the total. For the market of "live" beer - this is already more than 90% of the volume. Thus, the adoption of this bill will primarily affect sales - and, consequently, production - of “live” beer, that is, small business. Large manufacturers have the financial ability to reprofile production; however, this will still lead to losses, as well as an increase in the retail value of the product.
Although, according to RSP estimates, there are currently about 850 breweries on the market, Rosstat has data on the activities of only a small part - in 2011 only 74 organizations provided reports, in 2012 - 71, in 2013 - 68, and in 2014 - 64.
Figure 1. Dynamics of the main financial indicators of the industry in 2011-2014, thousand rubles.
Figure 2. Dynamics of gross margin and return on sales in 2011-2014, %
Figure 3. Dynamics of indicators of financial autonomy in 2011-2014, %
Figure 4. Dynamics of revenue and profit indicators in 2013-2015 (I-III quarter), thousand rubles
As can be seen from the above diagrams, the industry demonstrated the best financial indicators in 2012, the worst - in 2013. In 2014 there was a partial recovery in volumes, but they did not reach the level of 2012. As in many other sectors of the economy, in 2014 there was a significant increase in capital and reserves. The return on sales for several years remains virtually unchanged, and the gross return on investment has been steadily increasing since 2012; in 2014, it reached 109%.
The structure of liabilities shows remarkable dynamics - a decrease in the share of borrowed capital and a steady increase in the coefficient of autonomy. The decrease in the share of borrowed capital occurs primarily due to long-term liabilities, while the share of loans and borrowings in short-term liabilities increases. Own working capital, which took a negative value in 2013, returned the plus sign in 2014, but it is still more than 10 times lower than the 2012 level.
As for 2015, in the first three quarters, revenue almost reached the level of 2013 and has every chance to exceed the level of 2014 by the end of the year. Profit from sales in the industry for the first three quarters of 2015 has already exceeded the indicators of the previous two years.
Craft beer as a product in Russia appeared very recently, the growth rate of this segment is high, but there are no exact statistics on them yet. Presumably, the share of craft varieties is not more than 0.5% of the total market.
The project involves the organization of a manufacturing enterprise in the territory of Rostov-on-Don; production - five sorts of craft beer under the own brand of Hammer Torah. When making beer and building a brand, motives of Scandinavian mythology and Scandinavian cuisine are used. The process of building a strong brand is extremely important for the project, since only with the help of the maximum involvement of the end consumer in the life of the brand can one achieve maximum loyalty.
The brewery is located in Rostov-on-Don on a rented area in the territory of a former shoe factory in the city center, which provides the most convenient logistics. The brewery's productivity is 1, 000 liters per shift (24 hours). The price segment is premium.
Rostov-on-Don is the largest city in the South of Russia, the administrative center of the Southern Federal District and the Rostov Region, the largest economic, industrial, and cultural center. The population of the city is 1.1 million people. The population of the Rostov agglomeration is 2.16 million people.
According to various estimates, beer consumption per capita in Russia is from 50 to 75 l / person per year (average value is 62.5 l / person). Based on these data, we can calculate the potential market size, which will be: 2 160 000 people. * 62.5 l / person = 135, 000, 000 l / year or 11, 250, 000 l / month. With an average price of 120 rubles. for 1 liter of beer in monetary terms, the potential market volume will be 1.35 billion rubles. per month. Even with an estimated craft beer volume of 0.5% of gross consumption, the available market volume is 6.75 million rubles / month. However, the project plans take into account the increase in this share due to the development of the brand and active interaction with the target audience.
DESCRIPTION OF GOODS AND SERVICES
The products of the Hammer Torah project are craft beer brewed at its own production facilities using technology developed specifically for the project.
Craft beer is a fairly new trend in world brewing, which came to Russia no more than two years ago. To date, the generally accepted definition of craft beer is considered American:
The brewery should be small and produce no more than 6 million barrels (703.8 million liters) per year
The brewery must be independent - at least 75% of its capital is owned by it
The brewery should be traditional - the basis of beer is malt (at least 50%), and the use of additives is aimed only at complicating and improving the taste, but not at its lightening and is not caused by the desire to save on ingredients.
In addition, the distinctive features of craft brewing are: innovativeness (unusual tastes, approaches), active work with the community (target audience), individuality (brand and its value).
In accordance with the brand name, the project focuses on Scandinavian mythology and especially the national cuisine of the peoples of Northern Europe. All these features are taken into account when developing and promoting the brand, creating a unique atmosphere of involvement in history and mythology.
The nomenclature and description of the varieties produced are given in Table. 2.
Table 2. Nomenclature and description of the produced beers
No. | Name | Fortress / Density | Description |
one | Thor's War Hammer | 9.5% / 14% | Strong dark beer with the addition of oat must. Soaked in the stingy sun of southern Norway |
2 | Valhalla Hearth | 10.0% / 16% | Strong dark smoked beer from five varieties of malt, including smoked. Fills with anticipation of meeting with Odin at Valhalla's banquet table |
3 | Valkyrie Scream | 6.5% / 13.5% | Light filtered beer with the addition of juniper. Feel the sweet embrace of the winged Valkyrie |
four | Nibelung's Ring | 5.7% / 12.5% | Dark beer with hints of lingonberry and a little addition of juniper. It carries the whole breadth of Scandinavian open spaces |
five | Kalevala | 5.5% / 12.5% | Light light beer with the addition of lingonberries, crowberries, cloudberries. Cold rivers and the warm sun of Scandinavia in one glass |
Beer is packed in 30-liter kegs, mainly with fitting “A”. The shelf life of a closed keg is no more than 10 days.
For registration of client institutions, advertising materials are used:
Labels for beer column medallions
Beer coasters (cardboard glass coasters)
Posters and posters
Leaflets
All advertising materials are provided free of charge in accordance with the advertising budget of each client. The first tranche of advertising materials is free of charge upon first delivery to the customer; the amount of the first tranche - 10, 000 rubles.
Table 3. Production costs and selling price
GOODS / SERVICES | COSTS UNITS, rub. | TRADING VALUE, % | UNIT COST, rub. | |
one | Thor's War Hammer | 17.3 | 700% | 138 |
2 | Valhalla Hearth | 17.5 | 850% | 166 |
3 | Valkyrie Scream | 17.7 | 900% | 177 |
four | Nibelung's Ring | 17.8 | 950% | 187 |
five | Kalevala | 18.6 | 1000% | 205 |
Total: | 873 ₽ |
SALES AND MARKETING
The main target audience of the project is men from 18 to 37 years old with a high level of income (more than 50, 000 rubles per month), active visitors to fashionable institutions (bars, pubs, niche restaurants).
The price segment of the project is premium. Sales channels:
Wholesale sales of premium segment to HoReCa institutions, primarily youth, niche (80% of the volume)
Wholesale sales of draft beer to the premium segment (20% of the volume)
An important factor in the successful development of the project is the building of a strong brand “Hammer of the Torah”, increasing its recognition and loyalty to end users. Brand development activities have received a lot of attention.
Brand Promotion:
Website Creation
Creating groups and project pages on social networks: vk.com, fb.com, Instagram
Conducting promotional events on the territory of client institutions with shows, prize draws, live communication with project team members
Providing advertising materials to client institutions in accordance with the advertising budget.
The advertising budget for the month is calculated individually and amounts to 0.5% - 1.5% of the gross turnover with the client for the previous month. Various POS materials can be provided within the budget: posters, leaflets, coasters, pillars, etc.
The project’s website has a blog with unique content on brewing technology, industry news (which may be of interest to the end user), workshop photos, company news, contests; it is also possible to publish partnership materials from client institutions, which contributes to the manifestation of a synergistic effect of development. All materials in the form of announcements are published on social networks, where contests are also periodically held, and other involving materials are posted. Within the framework of promotions, organization of excursions to production is possible.
As for the competitive environment, today the main competitor of craft beer can be considered "live" beer, the differences of which ordinary consumers almost do not understand the differences from real craft. Moreover, cases of speculation of producers of “live” beer on the concept of crafting are increasingly appearing. For this reason, maximum interaction with end users is very important. The average cost of one liter of “live” beer today is about 100 rubles in a store and 200 rubles in a bar or cafe. According to the recommendations of the project, the retail price of Hammer Torah products should be approximately twice as much - 200 and 400 rubles per liter, respectively. In this price category, the main competitors are imported beers - German, Belgian, English. At the same time, practically no one imports craft beer (due to its very high cost - up to 600 rubles per liter), with the exception of 2 premium restaurants. Based on the results of preliminary negotiations, these establishments are ready to include Hammer Torah products in their menu as a more economical alternative to existing varieties without loss of quality. The advantage of such cooperation is that visitors to these establishments are well versed in beer and will be able to appreciate the taste of the products of the project, thus creating an initial loyal audience.
The level of demand for the project products is not expressed seasonal. It is believed that during the summer months, the consumption of light alcoholic beverages, such as beer and its derivatives, increases, and in the cold season decreases. However, thanks to the unique assortment line of the project, this fluctuation can be significantly compensated by shifting the supply in the winter towards stronger varieties and in summer towards lighter ones. In general, given the fact that Hammer Torah products are sold primarily in cafes, bars and pubs, fluctuations in demand are not as pronounced as, for example, for bottled beer sold in stores. There is also a phenomenon of local seasonality, when before the New Year and New Year's holidays, visits to catering establishments and, accordingly, the consumption of alcoholic beverages are significantly increased.
Table 4. Planned sales
GOODS / SERVICES | AVERAGE PLANNED VOLUME OF SALES, units / month | PRICE FOR UNIT., Rub. | REVENUE, rub. | VARIABLE COSTS, rub. | |
one | Thor's War Hammer, l | 8, 000 | 173 | 1, 384, 000 | 138, 400 |
2 | Valhalla hearth, l | 3, 500 | 184 | 643 125 | 61, 250 |
3 | Valkyrie scream, l | 4, 500 | 195 | 876 150 | 79, 650 |
four | Nibelung's ring, l | 5, 000 | 196 | 979, 000 | 89, 000 |
five | Kalevala, l | 6, 000 | 205 | 1, 227, 600 | 111 600 |
| Total: | 5 109 875 | 479, 900 |
PRODUCTION PLAN
Production is organized on a rented area - the premises of a former shoe factory. Total area - 120 m2, of which directly production - 80 m2, warehouses - 40 m2. Location - ground floor, there are convenient access roads, all the necessary communications have been summed up. An office is also rented in the factory building to house sales and administrative staff of 20 m2.
The equipment is purchased from a Russian manufacturer that offers the organization of a turnkey brewery. The manufacturer carries out delivery, installation of equipment, its commissioning, staff training. In addition, for an additional fee, the manufacturer provides services for the development of technology and recipes. The equipment manufacturer also supplies the main raw materials: malt, hops. Additional ingredients (herbs, berries) are purchased from a wholesale supplier in Karelia. Delivery and installation time is 1 month. At the same time, formulation development and staff training are carried out.
Поскольку срок производства одной партии составляет порядка 12-14 календарных дней, график производства опережает план продаж примерно на две недели.
Готовое пиво разливается в кеги объемом 30 л с фитингом «А». Срок хранения – не более 10 дней. Кеги являются возвратной тарой. Доставка клиенту осуществляется транспортной компанией на следующий день после оформления заказа.
ОРГАНИЗАЦИОННЫЙ ПЛАН
Процесс реализации проекта условно можно разделить на три этапа: подготовительный, опытное производство и серийное производство. Подготовительный этап предполагает поставку и монтаж оборудования, разработку технологии, подбор и обучение персонала. Длительность – 1 месяц. На этапе опытного производства происходит отладка технологии и рецептуры, производятся пробные партии товара для презентации потенциальным клиентам; заключаются договоры поставки. Длительность – три недели. На этапе серийного производства проект непосредственно осуществляет операционную деятельность.
Руководящие функции в проекте выполняет инициатор проекта, занимающий должность директора. Он имеет все необходимые знания и навыки, опыт работы в дистрибьюторской компании, а также опыт реализации собственных бизнес-проектов. Директор выполняет функции, связанные с коммерческой частью. Управление производственной частью осуществляется начальником производства – технологом. Он является ключевой фигурой для проекта, а его квалификация – одним из основных факторов успеха. Требования к технологу: опыт работы в аналогичной должности не менее пяти лет, ответственность, наличие лидерских качеств.
Сбыт осуществляется торговыми представителями, которые работают непосредственно с потенциальными и существующими клиентами предприятия, проводят переговоры, заключают договоры поставки, получают обратную связь.
Table 5. Staffing and payroll
Position | Salary, RUB | Number of people | PHOT, RUB | ||
Administrative | |||||
one | Accountant | 23, 000 | one | 23, 000 | |
2 | Director | 40, 000 | one | 40, 000 | |
Industrial | |||||
3 | Технолог / начальник производства | 30, 000 | one | 30, 000 | |
four | Оператор линии | 23, 500 | one | 23, 500 | |
five | Подсобный рабочий | 20, 000 | one | 20, 000 | |
6 | Лаборант | 8, 000 | one | 8, 000 | |
Trade | |||||
7 | Торговый представитель | 25, 000 | 2 | 50, 000 | |
Auxiliary | |||||
eight | Storekeeper | 23, 000 | one | 23, 000 | |
Total: | 217 500, 00 ₽ | ||||
Social Security contributions: | 65 250, 00 ₽ | ||||
Total deductions: | 282 750, 00 ₽ | ||||
Рисунок 5. Организационная структура предприятия
В качестве организационно-правовой формы предприятия выбрано общество с ограниченной ответственностью. Форма налогообложения – УСН с объектом налогообложения «доходы» (ставка 6%).
ФИНАНСОВЫЙ ПЛАН
Проект не ограничен во времени и, судя по оценкам рынка, имеет долгосрочные перспективы развития. Финансовый план рассчитан на пять лет, что является оптимальным горизонтом планирования. Финансовый план учитывает все доходы и расходы проекта. Под доходами понимается выручка от операционной деятельности, доходы от инвестиционной деятельности и реализации активов предприятия не планируются.
Инвестиционные затраты проекта включают приобретение оборудования, ремонт и подготовку производственного помещения, расходы на разработку технологии, на проведение первичных рекламных мероприятий (Табл. 6). Общий объем инвестиционных затрат – 9, 46 млн. руб., из которых собственные средства инициатора проекта составляют 4, 5 млн. руб. Недостаток средств покрывается с помощью банковского кредита на срок 24 месяца со ставкой 18% годовых. Выплата осуществляется аннуитетными платежами, кредитные каникулы – 3 месяца.
Table 6. Investment costs
NAME | AMOUNT, rub. | |
The property | ||
one | Подготовка помещения | 220, 000 |
Equipment | ||
2 | Оборудование пивоварни | 8 000 000 |
3 | Hand tool | 70, 000 |
four | Laboratory equipment | 200, 000 |
Intangible assets | ||
five | Website Design | 75, 000 |
6 | Starting advertising campaign | 115 000 |
7 | Рекламные материалы для клиентов | 80, 000 |
eight | Разработка технологии | 350, 000 |
Current assets | ||
9 | Current assets | 0 |
ten | Raw material purchase | 350, 000 |
Total: | 9 460 000 ₽ | |
Own funds: | 4 500 000, 00 ₽ | |
Required borrowed funds: | 4 960 000 ₽ | |
Rate: | 18.00% | |
Duration, months: | 24 | |
Переменные затраты включают расходы на приобретение сырья, а также транспортировку продукции на склад клиента (Табл. 3). Постоянные затраты включают арендные платежи, расходы на рекламу, амортизацию и т.д. (Табл. 7). Амортизационные отчисления рассчитаны исходя из срока полезного использования основных средств в десять лет; расчет осуществлен линейным методом.
Table 7. Fixed costs
NAME | AMOUNT PER MONTH., Rub. | |
one | Аренда производственного помещения | 48, 000 |
2 | Office rental | 20, 000 |
3 | Advertising | 75, 000 |
four | Depreciation | 74 100 |
five | Communication and Internet | 4, 500 |
6 | Selling expenses | 10, 000 |
7 | Административные расходы | 5, 000 |
Total: | 236 600 ₽ |
A detailed financial plan is provided in App. one.
ОЦЕНКА ЭФФЕКТИВНОСТИ
Оценка эффективности проекта осуществляется на основании анализа финансового плана, простых и интегральных показателе эффективности (Табл. 1). Для учета изменения стоимости денег во времени используется метод дисконтирования денежных потоков; ставка дисконтирования – 12%.
Выручка первого года – 50, 5 млн. руб.; чистая прибыль (после уплаты налогов) – 33, 6 млн. руб. Выручка второго года и последующих лет – 61, 0 млн. руб., чистая прибыль – 41, 5 млн. руб. Простой срок окупаемости проекта (PP) – 5 месяцев, дисконтированный срок окупаемости (DPP) – 6 месяцев. Чистая приведенная стоимость (NPV) – 11, 8 млн. руб. Внутренняя норма доходности (IRR) – 23, 54%. Индекс доходности (PI) – 1, 24. All these indicators testify to the high efficiency and investment attractiveness of the project.
ГАРАНТИИ И РИСКИ
Для оценки всех возможных рисков, связанных с реализацией проекта, проводится анализ внутренних и внешних факторов. К внутренним можно отнести следующие:
Низкое качество продукции, что может повлечь рекламации со стороны клиентов, отказ от сотрудничества и недополучение прибыли при ухудшении репутации бренда. Необходимо предусмотреть мероприятия по обеспечению качества продукции: входной контроль сырья, лабораторный контроль готовой продукции, получение обратной связи от клиентов и конечных потребителей.
К внешним факторам относятся:
Появление на рынке новых игроков с крафтовым пивом. Вероятность этого весьма высока, поскольку проект позиционируется в новом рыночном тренде. Однако, преимущество крафтового пивоварения заключается в том, что создать полный аналог продукта практически невозможно. Кроме того, формирование лояльной аудитории позволит проекту противостоять деятельности прямых конкурентов.
Недобросовестное использование производителями «живого» пива термина «крафтовое пиво» и, как следствие, размывание бренда. Для противодействия этой ситуации необходимо развивать мероприятия по повышению лояльности конечных потребителей, более активно работать с целевой аудиторией.
APPENDICES
ANNEX 1
Financial plan
Denis Miroshnichenko(c) www.clogicsecure.com - a portal to small business business plans and guides
